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This paper presents the results of four censuses of the northern New Zealand dotterel (Charadrius obscurus aquilonius) population undertaken between 1989 and 2011. During that period, the population increased by roughly 50%, from about 1,320 to about 2,130 birds. Most birds (85%) were in the northern part of the North Island (Northland, Auckland, and Coromandel Peninsula), but the taxon is expanding its range southwards on both the west and east coasts. On the east coast, a few pairs are now breeding close to Cook Strait. Population trends varied between regions, and almost all of the overall increase was a result of increases on the east coast. The highest rates of increase were on the Auckland east coast and on Coromandel Peninsula, probably because the intensity of management has been highest in those regions. In the Auckland urban area, birds now routinely breed inland, mainly on grass or bare earth; elsewhere, the taxon is almost entirely coastal. The proportion of birds on the west coast has fallen over the past 50 years, and about 85% of the taxon is now found on the east coast. If the overall increase in numbers has continued at the same rate since 2011, there would be about 2,600 birds in 2020. The size of the population and its rate of increase justify the recent down-listing of the subspecies to a threat ranking of At Risk (Recovering), but it remains Conservation Dependent. The recovery programme has been highly successful, and most management of the taxon is now undertaken by community groups, regional councils, and volunteers. Continuing threats include predation, flooding of nests, and disturbance during breeding; in future, continuing coastal development and increased recreational activity will probably degrade habitat further, particularly on the east coast, and climate change will have a range of impacts.