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The recent productivity and survival of the critically endangered kakapo (
Strigops habroptilus) is summarised and its population trajectory in a variety of circumstances is modelled by simulation. Simulated kakapo population growth rates decline with decreasing intensity of management, and unmanaged kakapo on Codfish Island increase only slowly and have a significant risk of declining. Kakapo on islands where more than one fruiting species triggers their breeding have much higher growth rates than kakapo on islands where only rimu (
Dacrydium cupressinum) triggers their breeding. The models predict that kakapo will reach a predetermined population milestone of 53 females in 2 – 6 years depending on the number of fruiting species that trigger breeding. At this milestone the intensity of conservation management will be reduced. Conservation management will be further reduced at a second predetermined milestone of 150 females in 19 – 37 years.